By Mikayla van Loon
Increased bushfire risk has been predicted for large parts of Victoria, with the Yarra Ranges and Cardinia fire danger periods announced ahead of the peak summer season.
The AFAC Seasonal Outlook for Summer has issued a warning for large parts of southwest and far west of Victoria, parts of the northeast, and the Mornington Peninsula in southwest Gippsland, as well as parts of Greater Melbourne.
Higher fuel rates because of drier conditions leading up to summer have created a dense undergrowth of dead vegetation.
“A dry autumn and winter and the hottest winter on record, with maximum temperatures for Victoria, has resulted in higher fuel loads and drier conditions, which will make it easier for fires to start and to run,” Emergency Management Commissioner Rick Nugent said.
“The fire risk potential for the remainder of the state is normal, but we do know that during normal conditions, we have deadly and destructive fires.”
Mr Nugent said already this season, 150 grass and scrub fires have been recorded, as well as two major fires.
CFA’s data indicated a 50 per cent rise in vegetation fires in 2023/24 compared to the previous year, with 2145 grass, bush and farmland fires occurring.
The fire danger period (FDP) for Cardinia Shire Council will begin on Monday 9 December, while Yarra Ranges, Knox and Maroondah will all enter the period on Monday 23 December.
Despite heavy downpours and humid temperatures in recent days, Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Keris Arndt said warm conditions were expected for the state, as well as patchy rain.
“We’re expecting the heat trend to continue over the next few weeks, and as we move into summer, with the indications very strong that we’re heading towards a warm summer with temperatures forecast during the daytime and the night time to be above average to well above average,” he said.
“It’s going to be a wetter than average December, though this can be very patchy, especially when we’re talking about showers and storms moving across the state, some areas can get a lot of rain, and other places can be left without.
“We’re coming off the back of a very dry past 18 months, that’s going to take a long while to replenish our catchments and this has a big effect on the status of fuels around the state.”
This message of not being complacent given rainfall expectations, CFA chief officer Jason Heffernan reiterated.
“Despite the rain we saw in the last two days that will clear, that vegetation will dry and it will become available again for fires in order to burn,” he said.
“Communities need to be aware, particularly out of metropolitan Melbourne, the Greater Melbourne regions where we are seeing that significant grass growth, and again, the warm weather and the rainfall that we have received in the last couple of days will only add to that grass growth and ultimately fuel that will be available.”
Given the likelihood of both rain and heat, Mr Heffernan said it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility to see “consecutive emergencies occurring with fires burning in the western part of the state and storms and the like in the eastern part of the state”.
Mr Heffernan said even areas considered ‘normal’ in the summer outlook should have a bushfire survival plan in place.
“Sit down with your family, have that conversation. Know what you are going to do on those days of extreme fire danger, or if a fire occurs near you, what will be your trigger points and the actions that you take with you and your family,” he said.
“Download the VicEmergency app and always have two sources of information. It’s essential that our communities remain informed during emergencies, that you can make the best decisions for you and your community.
“On the worst of fire days in Victoria, I can’t put a fire truck in every driveway, and that’s why we need to make sure the community has their bush fire survival plan. You need to take those steps to prepare your property now and keep it maintained throughout the summer months.”
It’s expected that all regions in the state will have their FDP declared and in place before Christmas.
If travelling throughout Victoria, the advice is to plan ahead, know the conditions and local restrictions, as well as points of safety and emergency contacts.
For more information, visit cfa.vic.gov.au
